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| ▲ | hnfong 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | There's a popular Chinese internet saying: "If you/I are/am not embarrassed, then it's the other person who is embarrassed." (只要我不尴尬，尴尬的就是别人) | | | |
| ▲ | kbrisso 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I think we are pulling in the driveway. | |
| ▲ | SecretDreams 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | We're maybe only the first half decade into it. Hopefully it doesn't last a century. | |
| ▲ | realusername 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | It's been pretty clear to me since the first Trump election that it's the end of an era. | |
| ▲ | ch4s3 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | US real median household income has been steadily rising[1] for the last 40+ years. Life expectancy is rising again after dipping and plateauing for a few years. Employment numbers are pretty good given the macro headwinds. The US forms ~5.9 million new businesses per year which vastly out paces the EU. The US isn't without problems, but we're doing OK. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N It's incredible that not a single person replying negatively has included a single piece of data. | | |
| ▲ | Someone1234 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > US real median household income has been steadily rising[1] for the last 40+ years. Compare it to the Consumer Price Index: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SA0R | | |
| ▲ | ch4s3 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | REAL income is adjusted for inflation. If real median income is increasing then it is outpacing inflation by definition. | | |
| ▲ | senordevnyc 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Why is it that the cynics and doomers always have such a poor grasp of the data? | | |
| ▲ | nixon_why69 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Because the basket of goods for inflation doesn't separate optional from mandatory consumption. If housing, healthcare and education are outpacing the topline inflation number, a lot of marginal families will be squeezed. The cheap LG TV doesn't really make up for it. | | |
| ▲ | ch4s3 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Nevertheless if you lump those costs into an inflation number it won't be a lot higher, the Total Living Cost calculated for 2023-2024 showed 4.4% inflation vs 3% CPI. There are a lot of ways to slice and dice this, which is why people stick to the classic CPI. | | |
| ▲ | nixon_why69 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Yes, if I ignore that point then the top line number is the same. But it's a choice to compute top line CPI the way they do. I'm explaining why people are still squeezed despite the top line number saying they shouldn't be. When data and anecdotes disagree, then double check the way you compile your data. | | |
| ▲ | ch4s3 an hour ago | parent [-] | | The data shows that inflation inclusive of housing, education, and healthcare isn't that much higher than CPI, which is because CPI already includes shelter, which accounts for ~36% of CPI. You assertion that CPI doesn't include housing is just wrong. | | |
| ▲ | nixon_why69 29 minutes ago | parent [-] | | I'm not asserting they don't include housing. I'm saying housing is non-optional, so having low inflation on flat screen TVs is cold comfort if you're struggling to pay rent. The basket of goods isn't the same for everyone. It's been like 5 years now of low consumer sentiment and increasing consumer debt while people who don't feel it are flabbergasted, the top line CPI number is fine, why aren't people happy? | | |
| ▲ | ch4s3 a minute ago | parent [-] | | > I'm saying housing is non-optional, so having low inflation on flat screen TVs is cold comfort if you're struggling to pay rent. You're missing the point, rest is included in that top line low inflation number. > the top line CPI number is fine, why aren't people happy? secular stagnation? Cultural malaise? Expectations formed by ZIRP. |
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| ▲ | ch4s3 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I think once you have a good command of data and broader trends its harder to be cynical or a doomer. You just see that things aren't perfect but are larger better than the past on most metrics. | | |
| ▲ | yoyohello13 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I think it's the dissonance between what the data say and just looking around. I see far more homeless, friends and family are more stressed, life in general just feels harder with less opportunity. Then you have the data people saying "no your life is actually great." So why the dissonance? I don't think it's just social media brainwashing. | | |
| ▲ | ch4s3 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I'm not saying any one person's individual life is necessarily better or worse, just that the median person is doing a little better than a few years ago. obviously there are long tails of outcomes in the US. I'd also point out that the US has seen better wage growth and less inflation in recent years than the rest of the OECD, by comparison we're doing OK-er than our peers. | |
| ▲ | sarchertech 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | The reason we have data is because of all the biases that come with “just looking around”. Confirmation bias and selection bias are very powerful. I strongly dislike Donald Trump, and he has done some terrible things to our country. But my dislike of him also makes me more likely to notice the bad things happening around me. It happens with conservatives too. Ask my conservative family about how frequently men pretend to be trans and go into women’s bathrooms to get a peek. Ask them how often non-citizens vote. Ask them how the current crime rate compares to when they grew up. | | |
| ▲ | yoyohello13 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Yeah this seems right to me. Politics is so polarizing it's a guarantee that half the country is going to be pissed no matter who is in charge. Most of my family leans left, it's hard to stay positive when the leader of your country actively and proudly hates you while also making terrible policy decisions. |
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| ▲ | senordevnyc 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I completely agree, especially if you consider humanity as a whole. I have asked this question many times to the doomers, and honestly don’t think I’ve ever gotten a good answer: if you had to be born as a random human somewhere on earth, and the only thing you get to choose is the year in which you’re born, what year would you choose? You can’t choose your race, intelligence level, physical abilities, parents, socioeconomic status, country, gender, sexual orientation, etc. Only the year. So doomers: if the world is completely fucked up and going down the tubes, when would you prefer to have been born? Huge bonus if you can actually give some data showing that the average human was better off during whatever time you choose. | | |
| ▲ | tsimionescu 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | The discussion here was about the USA, not the world. | | |
| ▲ | ch4s3 an hour ago | parent [-] | | That's why I pointed out that US real income, employment, and inflation figures all beat the OECD average. |
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| ▲ | Balinares 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | So many of my people in the US can't even make ends meet anymore that I opened a dedicated line of budget to provide help where I can. It's never been that bad before and it's nowhere near as bad for my people in the EU (not that everything is all rosy there, mind you). You might argue that Americans are just less capable of supporting themselves but I reject that argument firmly. The situation really reads like systemic causes. And I think cherry picking numbers to convince ourselves otherwise does more harm than good. | |
| ▲ | Lyngbakr 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | But I think there will be a lag. The US has (willingly) forfeited some of its soft power and we may not see the impact of that immediately. | | |
| ▲ | ch4s3 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | No argument there. The US has been hit hard by the global populist political wave in recent years. |
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| ▲ | barbazoo 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Maybe break down those numbers by income and you'll see that rich people are doing fine, everyone else not so much. | | |
| ▲ | ch4s3 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Incomes at the lowest quintile rose 47% from 2021 to 2024. That growth slowed in 2025, but outpaced the growth of higher income quintiles in the first few years post pandemic. Real median household income in 2024 was $83,730 which is the highest it has ever been, and that is the middle quintile. | | |
| ▲ | arjie an hour ago | parent [-] | | This one has always made sense to me. If you think about circumstances which improve the bottom quintiles’ relative income so that they’re now making as much as the median (I.e. the curve flattens out through unprecedented prosperity for the poorest) then the middle and upper middle incomes will rightly conclude that they’re not relatively high income anymore. Placing an arbitrary person on the curve at the right place will show their relative position on this. There’s a reason a large amount of the complaints are things like “my DoorDash is so much more expensive” and “my insta cart bill is so much higher”. In the ideal state for the text writing middle and upper middle class, the mostly video consuming lower classes make very little money and provide services for cheap. One should expect that enriching the poor upsets those whose relative wealth/income is no longer as high as it used to be. I imagine we could test this by comparing p75, p90 to p10 and p50 For my part I am optimistic. So many things today are so much cheaper and better than they used to be. Looking forward to the future - with the one caveat that AI is the precipitous ridge we must walk. | | |
| ▲ | ch4s3 an hour ago | parent [-] | | This is a very zero sum view of the world that I don't think most people actually hold. |
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| ▲ | senordevnyc 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Maybe learn what median means? |
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| ▲ | lowbloodsugar 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | More people outside employment than COVID or Great Recession. Inflation wiping out income growth. Family units replaced by multi-job slavery shows up as “improved GDP”. There’s the powerball lottery that one person wins every few weeks and then there’s the crippling medical debt lottery that many people are “winning” every day. Wake up. | | |
| ▲ | ch4s3 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | > Inflation wiping out income growth Real income means inflation adjusted, so we actually see the median income outpacing inflation right now. > More people outside employment than COVID or Great Recession There's a lot going on here. One factor is that many people retired early during the pandemic and are going to skew this stat. It's also worth pointing out that the labor force participation rate is ~62% and peaked historically at 67%, so it's not that far off. > Are you ignorant or propaganda peddler This is needlessly inflammatory. | | |
| ▲ | lowbloodsugar 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | “Inflation adjusted” is offset by the changes to what inflation measures. And again income has only gone up because people are working multiple jobs. | | |
| ▲ | ch4s3 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | The basket of goods is totally transparent and related to things people really buy. Would you want a 2026 inflation number to reference VCR prices? Only 5.3% of US workers have multiple jobs. The long term average is just above 5%. So it is false to claim more workers have multiple jobs according to BLS stats. This number was above 6% for most of the 1990s. | | |
| ▲ | lowbloodsugar 40 minutes ago | parent [-] | | You are just outing yourself as someone who is a slave to meaningless numbers. Do you think side gigs are reported? You quote unemployment numbers without admitting that people who have given up or simple failed to land a job are not included in those numbers. The numbers are gamed. Feel free to keep showing us who you are. |
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| ▲ | tokai 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | >Life expectancy is rising again after dipping and plateauing for a few years Life expectancy dipping for any develop country, even if temporary, is an embarrassing catastrophe. | | |
| ▲ | ch4s3 an hour ago | parent [-] | | Well there was a global pandemic the prematurely killed a lot of elderly people, and the dip happened in a lot of countries. |
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