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swarnie 4 hours ago

I'm not familiar with 401k rules but presumably they get a choice of markets and products?

If one is over concentrated its easily avoided.

skohan 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The problem some have pointed out is that these companies are such a huge portion of the market right now.

The sound advice for the past decades has been, just invest in a low-cost ETF tracking the S&P instead of picking stocks to minimize risk and invest in the market broadly.

So a huge number of people have done that, believing they're diversified, while tech makes up 40% of the index.

Yes you could sell your S&P and find things to invest in least likely to be impacted by a potential bubble, but your average 9-5'er with automated contributions to their 401k is probably not sophisticated enough to do that.

And that's assuming only these companies would be affected if there was a massive draw-down in tech/AI related stocks. We haven't really seen a situation like this before, so it's not easy to predict what effects there might be in the broader economy.

anthonypasq 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

no one that needs to rely on their investments for their actual retirement still has them in equities. theres a reason target date funds automatically adjust asset allocation as it nears its target date. you should be in majority bonds and cds well before your actual retirement date.

wonnage an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

It’s probably not even a good idea to try and defend against the bubble by switching up your stock allocation. After all the whole reason passive investing works is that active investment rarely beats the market and if you’ve just been in SPY the whole time it’s unlike you have any edge to gain by switching to an active strategy every time fear creeps up

loudmax 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The employer selects a financial company to manage the 401k. When you switch jobs, you can roll the 401k from the previous employer into the new one, or into an IRA (Individual Retirement Account).

Usually the financial services company will offer several options: more aggressive/high risk, or less aggressive/lower risk. Most people will just go with whatever is the default option.

So much of the American S&P 500 is dominated by handful of companies that the risk is not that easy to avoid. If or when the AI bubble pops, it's going to take down a lot of the economy with it. You can direct your retirement savings into the lowest yield/lowest risk assets offered by the firm, but you'll forego whatever growth happens in the mean time.

Will the bubble pop next week? Next month? Next year? Who knows. Timing the market is incredibly difficult.

There's a famous quote, attributed (perhaps apocryphally) to John Maynard Keynes: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

TitaRusell 3 hours ago | parent [-]

The whole idea of a pension fund is that you don't need to time the system it is the system.

Like my country pension scheme. It went through ups and downs for a hundred years but has always come on top. All you need is a long horizon and a trillion dollars and you basically can't lose.