| ▲ | lumost 4 hours ago |
| These companies have valuations reflecting a debt light business. At a minimum, 420 billion in debt is enough to change the stock price by 10-20%. If the company plans to add another 400 billion in debt you need to give it the side eye. If 50 billion in revenue is from other companies debt spending… then You have a problem. |
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| ▲ | natebc 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| > If 50 billion in revenue is from other companies debt spending… then You have a problem. we may have a problem then. |
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| ▲ | postalcoder 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| > These companies have valuations reflecting a debt light business. Sorry, but this doesn’t make sense. The valuations of these companies reflect their growth. In finance there’s nothing inherently virtuous about a “debt-light business”. It’s all an allocation decision based on how you expect to grow relative the cost of that growth. Try and reframe it: are cash-heavy businesses given a premium? |
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| ▲ | conductr 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Growth of what exactly? AI doesn't have the normal leverage factor that software usually does where a simple codebase can drive a billion dollars of subscription revenue with 90%+ gross margin. There's no eventual state where the capex is in place and the margins flip. They're in the datacenter business, which is real estate, with tenant improvements consisting of rapidly depreciating/obsoleting equipment. These margins have no path to flip around and allow for a huge amount of revenues to flow through. If they start testing price sensitivity in the way that would justify the valuations, it will just accelerate the transition of AI from datacenter to local. >Experts continue to warn of an AI bubble, noting the enormous and widening gulf between company valuations and their comparatively measly profits | |
| ▲ | throwaway667555 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | The pertinent comparison in valuations is debt vs equity, not debt vs cash as you noted. | | |
| ▲ | postalcoder 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | My point was more of an exercise to point out that finance is about mutating resources. A lot of cash can be a good thing or a bad thing. Same for debt. There’s nothing inherently bad about levels. |
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