bad for the US economy but good for the World economy.

JumpCrisscross 12 hours ago | parent [-]

> bad for the US economy

Almost certainly not in the long term. If AI is a productivity enhancer, which I think we have evidence for, then the American economy’s heft (and continuing dynamism) get a tailwind. The minority of the new, leveraged economy getting hit will be a short-term painful adjustment, but it need not be anything more.

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everforward 11 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The distills are almost certainly bad for the US economy.

AIs promise is undercutting knowledge work, which is our primary export. Manufacturing left ages ago.

In theory, if OpenAI/Anthropic win then the US still wins since they’re headquartered here.

If open or Chinese models succeed, it undercuts our knowledge work market and that money starts flowing out to inference providers instead of in to US companies and their employees.

	▲	JumpCrisscross 11 hours ago \| parent [-]
		> knowledge work, which is our primary export We export more goods than services [1]. > Manufacturing left America is the second-largest manufacturer in the world by a long shot. > that money starts flowing out to inference providers Where are most of these? [1] https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_p...

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brazukadev 12 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The longer the US AI strategy continues to be to bet on openai/anthropic the bigger it will be the US economy impact. The US bounced back from the dotcom crash and the 2008 crash, it does not mean it will bounce back after an AI crash.

	▲	JumpCrisscross 12 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		> it does not mean it will bounce back after an AI crash It almost certainly will. AI dominates growth. It doesn’t dominate the actual economy. Most spending and investment is entirely decoupled from it.
	▲	wolttam 12 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		Well, one thing it will still have is a boat-load of compute.