| ▲ | vrganj a day ago |
| I'm not sure I've seen what I would call dramatic improvement since maybe GPT4? Sure, things got better. But I'd call it iterative more than revolutionary. I still wouldn't trust any of the models to do anything meaningful unattended. They all still do dumb shit all the time. Plus, even if they were genuinely dramatically better, the businesses sure as hell aren't. They're burning money left and right, they have no moat, Chinese open models are basically equivalent these days. What's the path to profitability, or hell, break-even? How do you envision this being anything but a giant money pit? |
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| ▲ | Aurornis a day ago | parent | next [-] |
| > I'm not sure I've seen what I would call dramatic improvement since maybe GPT4? LLM conversations online are so weird. Whenever I read things like this it’s like I’m living in a different world than the other person. GPT4 was almost useless compared to what we have available today. |
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| ▲ | hedora a day ago | parent [-] | | I mostly use anthropic models, but there was a big step function when claude code came out, and it’s been incremental or a plateau since then. Opus 4.6 and 4.8 are basically indistinguishable from Fable and Sonnet 5. 4.7 was a hot mess. The guardrails on 4.8 and 5.0 make them worse than 4.6 for many tasks. So, even if Fable is theoretically better, refusals/downgrades make it a worse product in practice. Who cares if it outperforms on 1-2% of real world tasks if 5-10% of tasks are blocked? I’d bet most people could be downgraded to a 12 month old frontier model, and not notice for a week or so. Anthropic’s big problem is that open weight models are 0-6 months behind. So, their product is commoditized and margins are never going to be good. | | |
| ▲ | Aurornis a day ago | parent [-] | | > I’d bet most people could be downgraded to a 12 month old frontier model, and not notice for a week or so. This is another unbelievable claim. I actually used frontier models from 12 months ago and they were completely different. |
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| ▲ | malfist a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| It sure is funny how everyone claims the current model is a "dramatic improvement" over the models from X months ago. You'd think if there had been that many dramatic improvements I'd have to babysit an LLM less frequently. |
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| ▲ | budsniffer952 a day ago | parent | prev [-] |
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| ▲ | dgellow a day ago | parent | next [-] | | It doesn’t matter… are those companies using AI getting a positive ROI? So far there is no signs it is the case, unless you’re yourself selling AI stuff | | |
| ▲ | budsniffer952 a day ago | parent [-] | | >are those companies using AI getting a positive ROI? Yes. >So far there is no signs it is the case How could you possibly know this? | | |
| ▲ | TheOtherHobbes a day ago | parent | next [-] | | Because there are almost no "We used AI to save money, improve our services, and gain more customers" success stories. There's a lot of "We fired a lot of people because we're sheep and now we're having to hire some of them back" stories. And a lot of "A few engineers are doing a lot more, but we're not quite sure how to turn that into actual money" stories. And even more "We told everyone to tokenmaxx, and they did, and then we realised it was costing too much, so we stopped," stories. But there really hasn't been a deluge of "AI has cut costs and increased profits while also improving quality" stories. There has been a small outbreak of vibe-startups offering fairly generic services - mostly marketing and adjacent - who are doing okay, possibly. But established tech? Doubt. | |
| ▲ | weakfish a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | How could you? Can _someone_ in this thread _please_ provide a source? |
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| ▲ | mcphage a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | They are! Coincidentally, there's been a precipitous decline in software quality and reliability the last few years. | | |
| ▲ | TeMPOraL a day ago | parent [-] | | No, there wasn't. The step decline started when SaaS was embraced, and everything turned into webshit. |
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| ▲ | vrganj a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | Sure, and my nephew is building nice little trucks with Legos. The point is, is anyone getting any value from it? | | |
| ▲ | budsniffer952 a day ago | parent [-] | | >The point is, is anyone getting any value from it? No, you're right, no one is getting any value from it. | | |
| ▲ | flextheruler a day ago | parent [-] | | Sarcasm over a legitimate question really? After about 4 years I think it's totally acceptable to ask where the profit is on any company's 10-K. Where are even the revenues on a 10-K? |
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