No, the majority will not. If through some miracles, passkeys gain sudden and wide adoption, there will be a day of reckoning come around the next mobile refreshment cycle, maybe earlier.

People break their phones. That is normal experience. Entirely unsupported by passkeys as they are today.

I'm actually surprised we didn't have more pushback for ubiquitous 2FA, as they have similar threat profile - i.e. addressing the tin-foil threats of cybersecurity aficionados, while entirely ignoring the common threats to real people, in particular the one of broken or lost mobile device.

Incorrect. They break but they fix it.

People break their phones less often compared to telling them keep their keepassdatabase in sync across devices.

Even recently my friend fixed his iPhone XR (10 year old) 3rd party. Everything including passkeys work fine.