> AIs today are far more knowledgable and much quicker than humans, but still missing a few bits that keep them from being broadly super human.

Generally, yes, but it’s the non-determinism that gets me. Even easy stuff: I’m currently on a road trip, and asked Claude (Fable) to plan various routes, optimizing for scenery while also ensuring a maximum drive time each day, and ending every night in a town that has a decent hotel. Along the way, I’ve made various tweaks, like “we’d like to drive an extra hour or two today, so adjust the rest of the route so we don’t end up with a short intermediate day.” While in general it’s done quite well, it occasionally made errors on distance between stops, something that’s trivially queryable. It wasn’t off by a few miles, either, it was hundreds.

Until they can get the confidently incorrect problem solved, I don’t see it being a viable replacement. Maybe if you have agents that are aggressively checking the main ones’ output, but that seems unnecessarily wasteful of resources to me.

> Until they can get the confidently incorrect problem solved, I don’t see it being a viable replacement. Maybe if you have agents that are aggressively checking the main ones’ output, but that seems unnecessarily wasteful of resources to me.

2 years ago AI could even count the number of letters in a word or do basic maths. Now we're at the point where we can't trust it because makes occasional errors.

Don't get me wrong, I agree with you. These are things that need to be solved first, I just don't have reason to believe these are particularly difficult problems.

Anyway, I enjoyed the convo. Was interesting hearing your thoughts. I would give anything to be wrong.