> My impression is that, if China surpasses the US in AI development, there will basically be nothing that the US does better than the rest of the world--except for military spending

This comment is stunningly out of touch. The US dominates finance (overwhelming lead in assets managed, stock market capitalization, trading volume, and basically every other metric); space launch (about 85% of all mass placed into orbit); medical devices (exports nearly 2x the second largest exporter); and pharmaceutical research (more active clinical trials than any other country, near-universally ranked as the top producer of major pharmaceutical innovations, world-leading survival rates on many cancer types). We are the world's leading producer of both oil and natural gas. We manufacture the world's most advanced jet engines, precision agricultural machinery, and measurement instruments. We design the world's most performant CPU's and GPU's. We film the most popular movies and record the most popular music. Despite having only 4% of the world's population, there is literally not a single major industry where the US is not a leading player.

There is no doubt that China is a serious threat to US global leadership, and they have already surpassed us in many areas. But that doesn't mean the US is behind overall. We still have a lot of strengths and we have every reason to hope for continued success in the 21st century.

I wouldn’t say “literally” every industry: stuff like clothing, shipbuilding, consumer electronics assembly, certain rare earth raw materials, all we have pretty little participation in. But these are as you point out the exceptions that prove the rule.

Don't forget pizza delivery.

Finance mostly true, space launch also true, cancer survival broadly true (with qualifications), oil and natural gas also true.

> (exports nearly 2x the second largest exporter)

Can you provide the source? In the WTO's broader medical goods category, Germany actually exported slightly more than the US in 2022 ($202.6 billion versus $189.6 billion), so such a huge difference in a few years?

> and pharmaceutical research

China accounted for approximately 44.2% of the 104 new molecules in 2025, compared with 26.9% for the U.S. and 15.4% for Europe.

The 2024 shares were approximately 34.6% for China, 30.9% for the U.S., and 22.2% for Europe.

> there is literally not a single major industry where the US is not a leading player.

I will just give 3 examples: China completed roughly 91% of the world’s shipbuilding tonnage in 2025, holds more than 80% of solar module manufacturing capacity and produces more than three quarters of global batteries.

Fuck yeah!