I personally think it could pop before then if there is not concerted effort to stop inflating it and maybe start to let the air out.

But the main reason 2028 would be a risky year is the systemic risks around Trump. If he makes even more efforts to put his thumb on the electoral scales than he already has, or if it is not clear there will be a free and fair election (from an external perspective it really isn’t), then confidence drains out of the wider system very quickly, and one of the earliest things to go in such a situation is speculative investment.

Even if there is a free and non-controversial election, the market might well see risks for the AI companies: would the Democrats, if they make it into power, be so fully on board with letting these companies operate in a low-regulation environment?

And if the bubble should look like bursting for its own reasons in early 2028, will the by then quite stressed federal government, late in the term, actually have the real authority to do anything about it? It’s not a popular government, or a very organised one, and whatever they do will need confidence, co-ordination and an unprecedented level of buy-in