Remember, these cars are running local LLMs, not frontier models. The issue with self-driving cars has been the edge cases. The 0.0001% of situations where the models did not have sufficient training data. This is compounded by the hardware limitations. Onboard RAM in a typical Tesla on the road is 16GB (+16GB for the backup computer). This has to run the existing onboard OS and other operations plus the LLM. These two factors combined means that the cars are currently incapable of negotiating the 0.01% cases, let alone the 0.0001% cases. And this is compounded by the fact that LLMs cannot currently update their weights in real-time, like humans. It takes months to train a new model. Special small models can be very tricky, especially around safety and mission critical applications like FSD.

All that said, current data shows that FSD is already better than human drivers on average. See the recent regulatory decisions by the Dutch and Danish road safety authorities. So we've already crossed the rubicon. All improvements now are icing on the cake. My prediction is that local LLMs will get much better, very fast. How that's operationalised with Tesla (or other) data is yet to be seen. They have at least three new ASCIs/SoCs in the roadmap for improved LLM efficiency and with a lot more RAM. Plus they just announced new technologies allowing the local LLMs to learn from driver intervention and behaviour. Some form of vectorised RAG, which could mitigate a lot of the limitations around real-time learning.

I am very optimistic for the future of self driving. I own a Tesla with FSD now, and it's incredible. It makes mistakes, but fewer than I do, and so far has saved my butt (and my wife's) several times from obstacles and emergencies we would not have seen. The car has undeniably made us safer.

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6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

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linzhangrun 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> so far has saved my butt (and my wife's) several times from obstacles and emergencies we would not have seen.

Honestly, you need to reflect on your driving habits. FSD has only been usable for two or three years maybe? And you already encountered MULTIPLE situations requiring active safety intervention to save you during this time?

You cannot rely on the extra safety it provides. A driver with basic competence should be able to avoid most risks through anticipation before they happen.

	▲	Gareth321 4 hours ago \| parent [-]
		All of the scenarios involve circumstances we could not control. For example, someone pushing into our lane on the motorway in the blind spot, requiring evasive manoeuvre to avoid. It's possible Danish drivers are careless or aggressive, but I think it's more likely you just don't realise how many close calls and evasive manoeuvres you need to perform on an annual basis with average driving kilometers and regular defensive driving. > You cannot rely on the extra safety it provides. A driver with basic competence should be able to avoid most risks through anticipation before they happen. It's too late. These safety features are saving lives all over the world, every day. As per the Danish and Dutch regulators, FSD is already safer than the average driver. I would prefer that all the drivers on the road are using this technology than manually controlling their cars. People make all kinds of mistakes which FSD does not.

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fuck_google 29 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

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