I really enjoyed reading this.

This might be a simplistic take, but my biggest worry with depending on Chinese models (and, by proxy, open-weights model development) is that the US can deem them a national security risk at basically any time, and Ant/OAI have minimal interest in making frontier-level models open-weights.

Regulated companies prohibit Chinese models in anticipation of the ban-hammer from the feds, so for data-sensitive work, they're stuck with LLaMa, gpt-oss and Gemma models (which are good and serve as a good-enough base for sft, but seemingly not as good or as expensive as Chinese models)

I suppose the USG can do the same thing that China is doing and bankroll/subsidize that effort; whether they will is for fate to decide.

Nonetheless, this article made it clear that nVIDIA is the real winner in all of this. Shovel selling to the extreme.