Nah, the point is that if models are commoditized and there's no hope of making significant profits, no one is going to be willing to make the massive investments necessary to continue pushing the scale frontier. How large a training run do you expect investors to fund out of the goodness of their hearts?

what good does it do to invest in a solved problem?

if open models are good enough then it doesn't matter, if they aren't then there's probably a return available in investing there.

Doesn't this merely mean that states will do the job of investment ?

The real problem is that I could probably solve even biggerer issues if the investment went to me instead of OpenAI, so OpenAI has a moral imperative to shut down and send me all their money right now.