> I expect the inference market to grow much faster than training costs

This was my assumption as well. It's also generally true of 'traditional' deep learning models that inference cost is expensive compared to training.

But the cost per token for inference has been very quickly dropping. I don't recall where, but I recall about ~50x down from GPT3, even as model complexity has increased. Even with agentic systems, there are lots of optimization opportunities. I'm less assured about claims like this.