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derangedHorse 13 hours ago

> so they stop developing it because nobody loses money for long and so neither the rich or cheap schools develop any new curriculum

Why do you assume the poor schools wouldn't be smart enough to keep it going? It's very likely the can collectively beat the rich school now that the one other rich school opened access to their materials and led the charge.

> but if the compute and scale is needed to train the models, nobody will be able to do that profitably

But they would. Efficiently hosting models will be the real business and early access to models with incremental improvements will not be the moat once thought. The reason other companies don't feel they can compete is the same reason OAI and Anthropic will lose their lead. They banked too heavily on another player NOT leading the charge on open research and poured disgusting amounts of money at closed source models.

China has proved they can take the limited resources available to them and build something better than what the US is offering consumers [1]. I'm just waiting for other countries to start pitching in.

Reminds me of the NSA and their early battles with cryptographers who believed in open research.

[1] https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/2078984980588531855