> Put all of these trends together, and I think that in 10-15 years, we are going to have consumer PCs (and phones!) running models doing pretty much anything that frontier models can do right now.

Phones are constrained by battery power and memory does not shrink as fast as CPU/GPU, so unless there's a battery breakthrough and/or memory breakthrough, you're not fitting 100Gb of RAM on your phone in 10 years.

Absolutely in a Mac Studio equivalent.

LLMs have emergent capabilities when they get smarter. So who knows how insanely big frontier models might be at that time, or what their capabilities may be.

Not just that memory shrinks slower, it has practically completely stalled. On chip cache seems stuck at 7nm and DRAM is stuck at 10nm. As transistors shrink, they hold less charge, creating weaker signals that are harder to read and prone to interference. Smaller nodes aren't a huge issue on CPU/GPU work load because they don't have to hold a static state.

I'm not saying we are at peak memory but future gains are going to come increasingly slower.