I also don't believe it, if it was as easy as that, we would have hundreds of competitors.

The truth that Anthropic and OpenAI will not say, is that these Chinese labs have a lot of talented people.

And this is exactly what many Americans cannot admit to themselves. China is not stealing American research they are inventing stuff.

They can invent it. They can build it. And it is only a matter of them before they can scale that last barrier of American hegemony- market it.

I am strongly in favor of open models, open source ML more broadly, and am pretty critical of the cynical positions adopted by major US labs vis a vis open models.

But this is an insane characterization. Literally every single researcher and executive at OpenAI and Anthropic would say that "these Chinese labs have a lot of talented people." They hire from them (and vice versa). Tencent's chief AI scientist was poached directly from Deepmind, who poached him from Anthropic, etc etc etc. Do you think there are just zero people from China working at US frontier labs?

And even beyond that, the entire ML ecosystem (including people at OpenAI and Anthropic) get excited about research published by Chinese labs. Deepseek's GRPO paper set the ecosystem on fire for a little while.

The contention from OpenAI and Anthropic around distillation has basically been "Labs that distill from us get to bootstrap their model at a much lower price point". Or, in other words, "If we didn't invest in building the teacher model, it wouldn't be possible for these labs to distill their student model." Which I'm not very sympathetic to, but is a far cry from how you're characterizing it.

Very true, and once the models get even better and smaller and operate locally at a reasonable level there will be even more smart people particularly young people that will get access. The fun has only just started. Like the dawn of the personal computer era.

I think this also maps cleanly on the American blueprint of enshitification. Facebook took off by cleanly integrating and siphoning from Myspace so users could get the best of both on Facebook. Once Facebook took over the market they locked it up tight so no competitor could do the same.

OpenAI said it: "I don't think its performance can be explained away by distillation"

They know it's real effort that's doing this well, not just "copying off someone else's test." It's real and they will react. How is the big question.