I think a big question is whether any of these labs can produce a model that is _ahead_ of Anthropic and OpenAI.

A related question is how much they're dependent on the APIs of Anthropic and OpenAI to achieve their results - whether through distillation or other uses.

If these models are derivative of Anthropic/OpenAI I would expect performance to be more narrow and progress to be limited.

They dont need to be ahead on performance alone.

Its value per unit of currency spent.

Financials will ultimately drive decision making.

We are already seeing that more intelligence does not correlate with more revenue, for the firm purchasing tokens.

If I was OAI/Anthropic I'd be brown and yellow in the boxers.