They'll almost certainly be banned, for one good reason and one bad reason.

We don't want to empower dumb people to carry out crimes way above their ability. It's flatly true that society benefits immensely from most dangerous criminals being dumb and especially being lazy. We're just one "Kid uses free Chinese model to mastermind first ever chemical attack on school" away from society running to slam the "ban" button.

Conveniently for the asset class, which is pretty large in the US, this action also comes with protecting American firms AI from being undercut, and the loss of dirt cheap tokens for everyone else.

Maybe.

School shootings happen every year in the US, yet guns aren't banned.

Besides, banning open models would put ordinary US businesses at a disadvantage compared to the rest of the world.

Kids murdering people at school doesn't tend to change US policies...

They'll almost certainly be banned, but to protect our oligarchs. Nobody will be allowed to run unlicensed AI (or OSes), the chips themselves won't allow it.