I'm not saying that it is impossible for a more advanced model and training paradigm to outperform a larger model, what I'm saying is that if you leave everything the same except model size, the larger model nearly always outperforms the smaller one. This is intuitively true if you consider that you can fit in the smaller model + extra parameters into a larger model. There are some cases in which it doesn't work due to dataset/model size incompatibilities leading to overfitting, this is mostly covered by the neural scaling laws.

Based on a quick cursory glance at your example: Better data + better technique led to a better result with less parameters. Would you assume that then scaling both the dataset and model once again would lead to even better results? If you haven't fully encompassed the underlying distribution with datapoints, intuition says yes.

What I wanted to initially highlight was actually something slightly different: Specifically that people keep trying to "outsmart" optimizers by either fully hand-crafting solutions or skewing existing machine learning algorithms via additional tricks that are supposed to encode "human intuition" or something similar (to be fair there are ways to do it correctly). These all tend to fall short in a few years simply due to "line go up" being stupidly effective (compute getting cheaper, more training data being available, better optimization strategies, better architectures) [0]

Specifically this idea of small fine tuned LoRA models falls into the trap quite often: People assume you can beat the big, slow, general purpose LLMs with a small highly specialized model that has been fine tuned on the "good" human intuition of your special inhouse dataset.

LoRA can do great things, but it is often misunderstood what LoRA actually does.

0: http://www.incompleteideas.net/IncIdeas/BitterLesson.html

My point with the force field example wasn’t to argue against neural scaling as a valid strategy, it totally is effective and a lot of groups are doing it. But I feel like we might be talking past each other a bit.

What I’m pushing back on is what I think is a sort of one-dimensional view of Sutton’s bitter lesson. People seem to equate it with model scaling, but there are lots of general ways to leverage computation that don’t involve just scaling models and supervised training datasets up. For example Sutton’s first example is straight up search, no parameters at all.

The point of the force field example is that it seems you don’t need billions of parameters to represent the functions we’re interested in, but with small models it’s harder to find those functions by pushing harder on the standard training algorithms, and that maybe some different algorithm that leverages computation more effectively could do so.