This seems more of a battle for frontier AI supremacy. I'm afraid that small capable models have been left in the dust. Big labs don't really want to hand over the golden eggs goose to the end user. Possibly the hardware vendors(e.g. Nvidia) may want to play in that area as well, to pull money from all parties.

> I'm afraid that small capable models have been left in the dust

I wholly disagree. Rather than going the "everything is a claude code skill" route, I've been hacking together purpose-built harnesses for all sorts of tasks, and in that environment a wee little baby model can do some really useful things. You end up burning lots of tokens making the thing, but then all that investment comes back when the resulting tool works perfectly fine on a dinky little model that fits on my 3060 Ti.

Google makes Gemma 4 31B QAT; that's not a small lab. It's one of the better models out there for consumer hardware. Allows me to run it on a 7900XTX with 64k context.

nvidia and amd don't give a flying fuck about end users right now while they can milk triple digit markups from infinite money VCs via data center GPUs.

someone will keep putting out consumer level models. Once you have the larger models, you can derive the smaller onces.

Europe will definitely be interested in democratizing these things if China starts losing interests; from there, there'll be more countries looking to keep their citizens entrained in their own Country's infrastructure.

It'll especially be true if the memory cartel keeps prices high and NVIDIA tries to gouge higher memory models.

It's an arms race everyone can join because PC hardware was mostly democratized in the last decade.