> And who hasn't seen productivity gains from more established AI technology

You have to be very careful about claiming productivity gains. There may have been some instances of gains in a specific part of a workflow but does it slow down others or result in overall gains is yet to be empirically measured and validated. We’re seeing metrics like more lines of code, better unit tests, documentation, faster PRs etc. but the actual gains of businesses are still a question mark. Do more PRs lead to faster features being shipped or does it lead to slower reviews or bug ridden code that breaks user experience? I’ve see a lot of companies tout their metrics around more code being shipped but the same companies aren’t talking about how that translates to an actual dollar amount.

These things have been "good" for a while now. And yet, companies like Amazon and Microsoft aren't showing significant improvement in their most visible products.

If it's not obviously showing for the all-in, AI-selling companies, I simply don't expect serious improvement for everyone else.

They're undeniably neat tools, but so far there's no observable evidence that they're transformative.

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