There is a lot of supposition going on your part and mine. IMO, Chinese labs are not dependent on OpenAI/Anthropic outputs; they definitely use the outputs, but along other training/post-training data.

Now that Anthropic hides the real thinking tokens in a way that precludes future CoT distillation, we'll find out which side is correct based on whether Chinese AI labs close the gap or not.

My bet is they'll close the gap; nothing about frontier AI is magic, once something is shown to be possible, experienced practitioners almost always figure out how to accomplish the same feat, though not always on the same way. This is why frontier US labs keep leapfrogging each other every few months.