The hypothesis generation phase is looking like the most critical part of having an agent reliably hit your targets.

Simply starting in the correct part of the search space is probably the biggest predictor of success. Forcing one big loop to fight its way through all the hypotheticals from zero looks like a dead end for many practical scenarios, regardless of how powerful the model is. I think you could draw some analogies to humans here.

I have found that delegating deep research to a simple tool call is the best way to ground the agent in complex domains. If you make the main agent loop carry the weight of this research, it's going to do a really shitty job because of how the RLHF tries to preserve context and get an answer to the user quickly. As a tool, you may find the agent invokes multiple rounds of research consecutively without realizing it has incurred billions of tokens of consumption. Many of the tokens are wasted when generating independent hypotheses and subsequently investigating them, but the point is that you sampled 10-100x search space before getting serious about mutating the environment. The tradeoff seems worth it in a lot of cases. Correctness >> Time >> Money.

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