Is the whole Straight of Hormuz fertilizer shortage just FUD, or should we be preparing to see this "real"ness get a lot more real in the coming months or season?

I think it's a legitimate concern, and just one of many problems. Couple that with inflation (yes, and rising costs self compounding), petrol problems, pressure on the dollar, income stagnation, loads of other fun things and the wondrous introduction of LLM magic into every orifice of society, where should we expect this all leads to?

I am always looking for reasons to let my inner optimist shine through. Help, anyone?

Edit: I expect I will be chastened by vegans for the following, but..

I no longer buy milk. Organic milk up from an astonishing ~$5 to an average of $7.50 per gallon now.

I do not buy much meat, but beef is no longer an option. Yeah, it was subsidized, but that doesn't mean it's getting more affordable.

But really, I can no longer afford fresh vegetables. And though I lean vegetarian, that is quickly becoming an unhealthy option.