This is easier to say as Fable is good (even SOTA). But people have been were saying this continuously for the current model and for now the improvement are still coming.

A better question is would you settle for o3 now or pay 20$ or 200$/month for fable ? Because o3 quality is available OSS.

It is like the new IPhone, in some sort. At some point come a feature many would like to have, despite diminishing returns.

We will see how long labs can keep up and what the scaling curve look like, but I would be more worried into losing sota status to Chinese companies than letting them take the open non-sota approach.

IMO we are there almost. I had every iphone until 14 pro and still use this today. I know what the top of the s curve feels like. From a pure model standpoint weighed against every day use cases for every day people (the right way to measure when comparing to something as ubiquitous as a phone), the models already have diminishing returns.

I think there is also the case were companies will simply use different tiers for different tasks.

While the engineering team might need a cutting edge model (with the associated costs), the marketing department will be fine by something that can grammar correct or turn a few bullet points into prose. Likewise you already don't need Fable for Ticket -> RAG -> Reply with Faq knowledge or escalate workflows

That's already the case with other very expensive software like CAD packages were oftentimes you have different feature sets enabled for different employees.