It is obvious. All indices have been pumped up to insane heights since late 2024. KOSPI is crashing because the memory manufacturers are priced for continued bubble orders books. Those orders cannot be sustained and the selloff started in Korea, just as it did in the 2000 bubble.

The press is still instructed to avoid the word "cyclical" in connection with hardware, but the insiders remember 2000 very well.

If you watch daytrading, stocks like SpaceX or Micron are pumped up shortly after every opening so the insiders can sell higher during the day.

The insiders also own the press and analysts, so they desperately still construct positive narratives.

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MarkusQ 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

That's half the story.

The other have is that the same press and analysts still desperately construct negative narratives (note, for example, the very story we're commenting on). The point isn't to pump the market up or to crash it (though there are clearly folks out there trying to do both); the real goal is to keep people milling about and keep the money sloshing around, which drives the turbines of finance.

Your realtor makes money when you buy, they make money when you sell. Your lawyer makes money when you sue or when you get sued. Landscapers get paid to put plants in and to take plants out. The only thing they can't profit (much) from is inactivity.

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elzbardico 2 days ago | parent [-]

There's no need for a lot desperation to construct a really negative narrative about markets right now. It just takes a bit of math.

	▲	MarkusQ a day ago \| parent [-]
		Ditto for a really positive narrative. The desperation comes in when you try to keep the chocolate out of the peanut butter, and tell only the side you're trying to push without a hint of the counterarguments. (Or to provide only weak-sauce strawmen.)

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yongjik a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

KOSPI is "crashing" to ~6800 from the highs of ~9000, but that's still 110% higher than 1 year ago (~3200), so let's not get ahead of ourselves yet. It remains to be seen where it will land.

* Also, from what I heard in Korean news, many blame the current situation on the government allowing single-stock leverage funds for Samsung and SK Hynix, which reportedly made the market ultra volatile. (Well, most Korean stock traders are deranged gamblers, so maybe they are trying to find excuses, I dunno.)

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deskamess 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

> KOSPI is crashing because the memory manufacturers are priced for continued bubble orders books. Those orders cannot be sustained

Could you explain what that means? Are they overbooking and will not be able to meet those particular projections? Would a single segment of one industry cause a reverberation throughout?

	▲	phil21 2 days ago \| parent [-]
		It means that there will not be this level of memory demand for much longer. I tend to agree. Right now there is far more demand than supply, so they are cashing in while they can. It will be resolved one way or another eventually, current margins are not sustainable for the long term and will be resolved either via demand destruction or an increase of supply. Likely a combination of both.