This is shaped like more-or-less every IPO I've seen. I think you have to wait for more of a collapse to claim dispositive evidence of a scam (or widen your claim to 'almost all IPOs are scams').

Many IPOs slide below their initial offering.

Very few IPOs changed the rules to allow themselves to be incuded in significant indexes far faster than the rules previously allowed, and then slipped below their initial offering.

Oh yes, I tell you're a real market analyst. SpaceX is exactly like every IPO ever. Except actually it's unlike just about every IPO there has ever been for so many reasons: The tiny float, special treatment, the intense lockups, valuation at 100x its revenue. No IPO has ever been like this.

This is something you could empirically study. Looks like this NASDAQ study from a few years back has some numbers. At 3 months, that’s what’s in their chart, it’s still about 50/50. At 3 years it’s 29% with returns greater than 10% and 69% with returns greater than -10%.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/what-happens-to-ipos-over-th...

> This is shaped like more-or-less every IPO I've seen.

Not even remotely. Many startups IPO with no profit (though not all), but there is nearly always a credible business plan and a semi-rational valuation.

None of this is the case for spcx. They claim their TAM is about the size of the entire GPD of the USA and that they'll soon have 1T/yr in profits. All based on... nothing. The numbers are wildly unrealistic by a multiple never before seen. Oh and full self driving will be here before end of this year, trust them.

This is incorrect, the difference is that most IPOs do not have ETFs buying their stocks, meaning you have a institutional investor forced to buy your stock and keep the musical chairs game going even if your stock has an inflated price., hes robbing ETF owners of their hard earned money

the scam here is knowing that the price will be lower, but forcing index funds to buy high

SpaceX has a float of 5%. So only 5% of SpaceX shares have been released to the public. Slowly, starting in August, employees and investors will be able to sell their shares, about 45% more until December 2026 and another 45% until July 2027.

What do you think will happen to SpaceX share prices when roughly 18x the number of shares at IPO are released?

From a company that only made $18bn in sales last year and lost $5bn. For reference, Aramark, a company basically nobody has heard of made as much money and even turned a $0.5bn profit.

SpaceX shouldn't be worth more than $30 in 1 year's time.

Of course, irrationality can be an extremely strong force, so let's see.

This is the main point. I bought Backblaze too early in its post IPO phase. It's a good company and I am a customer, but I am down $15k on the buy.

Really? Which other IPO involves a company acquiring a completely unrelated company just before IPO in order to bail the founder out of a bad investment?

Can you name even one example in the last 50 years?

It got particularly bad with SPACs in the last few years.

Yes, it's almost like that's why there _was_ a rule in place to prevent IPOs like this from being shoved down everyone's throats so quickly without further testing.

This is not shaped like any other IPO. Objectively, it’s the biggest IPO in history and was included in the Nasdaq unusually fast. More subjectively, a significant part of its value is tied to the vision and credibility of a single person. Which BTW happens to be the first trillionaire in the world if things go well.

The valuation based on fundamentals is a scam, you can just look at the numbers. This is unlike any other IPO.

Most IPOs don’t put up 5% of the float for sale. Usually it’s closer to 30-60%.

> (or widen your claim to 'almost all IPOs are scams')

In a world where retail basically has no access to true IPO pricing, I don't think this is untrue for the majority of investors.

Jamming SpaceX directly into a bunch of indexes just because Musk wanted it (and everyone is a coward or complicit) stunk of "scam" in a very different way, though.

It's a scam because of the hype mind control and propaganda around it. Because Musk tried to force it into the NASDAQ and S&P 500 before the normal windows, attempting to bypass sensible regulations that protect investors.