> but most of the AI investment is in compute

Some people thought that it was misguided when they extended the depreciation cycle of the current AI build out year(s).

In terms of raw performance, there is still some headroom (maybe) but those gains are going to be marginal when you look at the amount of compute per watt (if its more than 5 percent I will be shocked). And that push is going to create a whole other set of problems (cooling is going to be an issue, it already is).

It is fairly likely that this hardware buildout has more legs than one might suspect based on history.

20 year old fiber can have another 10-20 years of useful lifespan remaining, I think compute is going to be valuable for a while but even a 7 year cycle doesn’t change much.

Most compute isn’t going to be new at a potential crash and recovery takes time.