I've updated the magic weights, and I too can get the result I want:

    WEIGHTS = {
      'w_xg': 0.09,
      'w_goals': -0.07,
      'w_star': 0.018,
      'w_value': 0.18,
      'w_rank': 0.4,
      'w_def': -0.12,
      'xga_share': 0.85,
      'w_gk': 0.0042
    }

    $ python3 worldcup_model.py --sims 100000

    2026 FIFA World Cup -- championship probabilities (100,000 simulations, from Round of 32)

     1. England                 11.7% *
     2. France                  10.0% *
     3. Spain                    9.3% *
     4. Argentina                8.4%
     5. Germany                  8.1%