I believe in microcontrollers its already pretty ubiquitous , see their utilisation by WesternDigital with their SwerV core thats already shipping since 2019. At speeds and complexity comparable to desktop/server cores from Intel/AMD they are still lagging in perf though improving as more cores get deployed. Also to add into the mix the whole geopolitics with non-US players hedging. So potential is there will just depend on what will be the base case like Windows was for Intel.

Non-US hedging will be big for RISC-V in the future, but the geopolitics can also cut the other way. E.g. US banning US companies from using Chinese RISC-V chips, to protect their domestic players. Especially now that intel is partially state-owned.

Firmware & systems dev here, ARM still dominates in the microcontroller space. There are some niche offerings from major vendors but again they are niche. Espressif is the sole exception with their newer ESP32-C series chips, but they can get away with it due to their massive HAL. ARM Cortex is still the standard because there’s a decade or two of inertia behind it.

An apt comparison would be C vs Rust. Yes, Rust may be growing in market share, but C still dominates.