| ▲ | mchusma 5 hours ago |
| Incentivizing usage during peak times makes total sense, but if price swings are this wild, how are grid scale batteries not highly economical? My rough ballpark math was that you need roughly 20 kilowatts of battery storage to make this issue basically nonexistent, and that would cost about 10 billion dollars, which doesn't seem that much for this. |
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| ▲ | jeeeb 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| Grid scale batteries and household batteries are being widely deployed. Australia is the third largest market in the world for grid scale batteries, and has the highest per-capita capacity in the world; https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/10/21/australia-becomes-wor... Not to mention more than 200k new household batteries installed in 2025 (out of roughly 10 million households). |
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| ▲ | michaelt 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I think it's less a question of batteries being economical, and more a question of the relative economics of batteries vs solar panels. After all, if the highest demand is between 16:30 and 19:00 you could use batteries to store power at 12:00 and sell it at 18:00 - or in famously sunny Australia you could build enough solar panels that solar output at 18:00 matches power demand. If batteries have a solid 9% return on investment, but solar panels have an even better 12% return on investment, panels will outpace batteries even though the batteries are a decent investment. (Also, from a politican's perspective, making batteries highly economical is how you get batteries built. And an awful lot of pro-environment policies involve raising taxes, banning things and creating new chores; it's nice to have some green policy announcements that actually benefit voters in the short term.) |
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| ▲ | perilunar an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | > you could build enough solar panels that solar output at 18:00 matches power demand No you could not. For half the year the sun has set by 18:00. | | |
| ▲ | sevenseacat an hour ago | parent [-] | | I mean in the dead of winter, yes. For six months of the year? Definitely not. | | |
| ▲ | perilunar 26 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Definitely so. Unless you are on the equator, the sun is up for less than 12 hours a day from the autumnal equinox to the spring equinox. The sun will set before 18:00 local solar time. So apart from funkiness with time zones and summer time (which extends a couple of weeks past the autumnal equinox in Aus), yes, roughly half the year. |
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| ▲ | danmaz74 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | You won't get 12% return if your panels generate electricity which is only paid between 18 and 19, because there is already overcapacity between 16:30 and 18. |
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| ▲ | jofzar 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > but if price swings are this wild, how are grid scale batteries not highly economical They are super economical in Australia and the government even offers discounts and interest free loan of 15k to buy them. |
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| ▲ | ghiculescu 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | They are super economical… which is why there’s a subsidy required for people to buy them? | | |
| ▲ | stubish 22 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | The more households that buy them, the less peak power generation is needed and less large scale battery deployments. If the ROI of a household battery was just 4%, you are better off economically paying higher power bills and sticking that money in an index fund. But if subsidies increase that ROI, more people buy batteries. The money the government contributes hopefully ends up less than they would need to spend on large scale battery deployments or on legacy power generation to power peak usage times. It also has the side effect of getting more citizens (literally) invested in sustainable power usage, and people get more interested in insulating their homes, buying more efficient appliances, moving away from gas etc. | |
| ▲ | chii an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > which is why there’s a subsidy required for people to buy them? the gov't also offers interest free (but inflation indexed) loans to tertiary education. Just because there's a subsidy, doesn't mean the tax payer is paying a price for inefficiency. The policy itself needs to be individually examined to determine whether it's an efficient use of funds, not simply that it's a subsidy (time frame needs to be taken into account too). | |
| ▲ | embedding-shape 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Is it so out of the ordinary that a government tries to help people save money or what's the question? Sounds like you've only had the American experience in life unfortunately. | | |
| ▲ | AnthonyMouse an hour ago | parent [-] | | If something actually saves money then it doesn't require a subsidy because people would be doing it regardless. Meanwhile the government doesn't have any of its own money, so it can't really give you something that was yours to begin with, all it can do is take it from you and then give it back with strings attached. How is that helping you? Instead of subsidizing something you can make up your own mind about whether you want, they should just lower your taxes by the amount of the subsidy and let you use your money for that or something else at your choice. | | |
| ▲ | embedding-shape an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | > If something actually saves money then it doesn't require a subsidy because people would be doing it regardless. Spoken as someone who never been poor. There is definitely a ton of stuff people with money can do to save more money, that is completely out of reach for the people who would actually benefit from those savings the most. Subsidies is quite literally about reaching these folks that others tend to forget about. > all it can do is take it from you and then give it back with strings attached. How is that helping you? Compared to "take it from you and not give it back to you", it's definitely helping people who have less money. Not sure how this needs explaining. | | |
| ▲ | AnthonyMouse an hour ago | parent [-] | | > Spoken as someone who never been poor. There is definitely a ton of stuff people with money can do to save more money, that is completely out of reach for the people who would actually benefit from those savings the most. Subsidies is quite literally about reaching these folks that others tend to forget about. Except that there is no additional money, its just your own money but now there are strings. On top of that, that still isn't necessary for things that save a non-trivial amount of money, because that's what loans are for. If it has a $100/mo loan payment and saves $150/mo on the electric bill then you take out a loan or buy it on an installment plan and don't need to have any accumulated capital in order to do it. > Compared to "take it from you and not give it back to you", it's definitely helping people who have less money. Not sure how this needs explaining. Why would anybody want that either, instead of just not taking it from you to begin with? | | |
| ▲ | yorwba 27 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | > that's what loans are for Upthread: "interest free loan of 15k" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48904009 | | |
| ▲ | AnthonyMouse 18 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | Loans for non-trivially profitable investments don't require government interest subsidies. | |
| ▲ | mothballed 16 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | ... for purchases from "approved" "accredited" suppliers[]. AKA the interest differential is regressive tax to funnel money to favored suppliers. Notice there's no option for the poor to simply install it themselves, which would save them more money than an interest free loan, but wouldn't funnel money to rich government approved install contractors. And there's your grift. As soon as the home owner wants to allocate the "profit" of install to themselves, it is a swift kick in the ass but that will go to our buddies, and thank you very much for your taxes. [] https://www.energy.nsw.gov.au/households/grants-rebates/home... |
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| ▲ | embedding-shape 32 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | > Except that there is no additional money, its just your own money but now there are strings. I understand what you mean, and yeah, "it's just your money", but also, it really isn't. Poor people have to pay taxes, no way around it, getting them back as subsidies is still better for them than not getting it back at all. The choice isn't "Keep the money or have subsidies", the choice is "The money goes to other stuff or get subsidies". > On top of that, that still isn't necessary for things that save a non-trivial amount of money, because that's what loans are for. If it has a $100/mo loan payment and saves $150/mo on the electric bill then you take out a loan or buy it on an installment plan and don't need to have any accumulated capital in order to do it. Are those interest-free or managed by for-profit entities? Because "loans" are vastly different things compared to subsidies, but I'm guessing you already knew this. > Why would anybody want that either, instead of just not taking it from you to begin with? Because "not taking it from you to begin with" isn't a practical and realistic alternative, that's not how the world, and especially taxes and government works... | | |
| ▲ | AnthonyMouse 23 minutes ago | parent [-] | | > The choice isn't "Keep the money or have subsidies", the choice is "The money goes to other stuff or get subsidies". That's the false dichotomy that happens in a broken government, but then why hold that out as something desirable? > Are those interest-free or managed by for-profit entities? Is the larger amount of mortgage or car loan debt they have to carry when they pay the extra money in tax? > Because "not taking it from you to begin with" isn't a practical and realistic alternative, that's not how the world, and especially taxes and government works... Your argument seems to be that lowering taxes on ordinary people is impossible? | | |
| ▲ | embedding-shape 14 minutes ago | parent [-] | | > That's the false dichotomy that happens in a broken government, but then why hold that out as something desirable? Personally I see it as stuff that happens in countries where the government care about the well-being of all, not just a select few (usually the ones with the most money). It's desirable that society improves, lots of that happens because of tax money. Subsidies usually means re-allocating funds, not raising taxes, although that might happen over time. Still, increasing taxes isn't inherently bad, especially when used for good. But I also know this is a somewhat controversial point of view in many hyper-capitalistic societies. > Your argument seems to be that lowering taxes on ordinary people is impossible? Yeah sure, I'm also clearly arguing for murdering children. Fun discussion, hope you'll enjoy the rest of your Tuesday :) | | |
| ▲ | AnthonyMouse 6 minutes ago | parent [-] | | I'm honestly having trouble comprehending what your position is supposed to be here. It really seems to be that using the money to lower taxes on ordinary people rather than providing them with subsidies is a thing that could never happen. As if the prospect that their taxes could be lower than they are now, rather than only the same or higher, is something you can't even imagine. |
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| ▲ | an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | [deleted] | |
| ▲ | master-lincoln an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Think about people who could not afford the initial investment. It's beneficial for society here if the government redistributes wealth for the benefit of all. | | |
| ▲ | AnthonyMouse an hour ago | parent [-] | | > Think about people who could not afford the initial investment. This is what loans and installment plans are for, the payments for which come out of the savings on the utility bill. > It's beneficial for society here if the government redistributes wealth for the benefit of all. Which has nothing to do with batteries. If you want to do that then provide them with a refundable tax credit that allows for a negative tax rate in cases where that's deemed desirable. And even that doesn't apply to the majority of people who are currently paying a non-negative amount of tax. Why attach strings to the money going to a middle class homeowner who should have just been allowed to keep that portion of their own salary? | | |
| ▲ | actionfromafar 26 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Why should they? In my mind it's all a coordination problem. Sometimes loans work better, sometimes subsidies work better. Neither loans nor subsidies are dirty words IMHO. | | |
| ▲ | AnthonyMouse 19 minutes ago | parent [-] | | > In my mind it's all a coordination problem. But that's the point. It isn't. Electricity costs more in the evening than during the day and there is a technology that can profitably be used to arbitrage the difference. There is no coordination problem at all, people have the direct individual incentive to buy the technology, on credit if necessary, without any form of government subsidy or involvement whatsoever. |
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| ▲ | TheOtherHobbes 23 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Think of it as a giant corporate tax break, but for the little people. | | |
| ▲ | AnthonyMouse 14 minutes ago | parent [-] | | > Think of it as a giant corporate tax break So the thing everyone correctly maligns because it's generally some form of corruption or inefficiency? |
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| ▲ | rswail an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | Because the individualized incentives do not take into account the community benefits. The money saved is distributed across the community, for both those that directly benefit and those that can't (eg renters, apartments etc). The general benefit is of greater value than the individual savings. Your attitude that somehow taxation is theft is a very silly Ayn Randian Objectivism outgrowth that has never been true, even in the most "free" US states. | | |
| ▲ | AnthonyMouse 41 minutes ago | parent [-] | | > Because the individualized incentives do not take into account the community benefits. Only if the utility company is pricing things incorrectly. If the price of electricity is ~free during the day and expensive in the evening then the individualized incentives for installing a battery line right up. > Your attitude that somehow taxation is theft is a very silly Ayn Randian Objectivism outgrowth that has never been true, even in the most "free" US states. Whether it's theft or not doesn't change the arithmetic. When you're paying them the money they're paying you, it was your money to begin with. |
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| ▲ | vitro an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I know people who would purchase solar panels and batteries, but they do not have enough capital to do so. | | |
| ▲ | aianus 16 minutes ago | parent [-] | | In Australia? The houses are like 30x-100x more expensive than a battery, how would this be possible? |
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| ▲ | TheOtherHobbes 25 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Yes. People can't always afford super economical things when the initial cost is high and the pay-off takes a while, but is easily worth it in the end. | |
| ▲ | liamkinne an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | The government loan changes the calculus. Allows for short term thinking and a long term benefit. |
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| ▲ | Walf 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| They are, but they still take time to build, and loans to finance. Here are two of SA's (which has the most renewable generation):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hornsdale_Power_Reserve
https://web.archive.org/web/20220523164905/https://www.elect... |
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| ▲ | xbmcuser an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Yeah this is why a lot of people were thinking that the Australian opposition asking for spending $40-50 billions for nuclear that would come online in 20-30 years and to keep using coal and gas till then were being stupid. |
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| ▲ | thedays 33 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | It wasn’t $40-50 billion. It was estimated to cost $116-$600 billion to build 7 nuclear reactors
https://smartenergy.org.au/nuclear-fallout-116-600-billion-t... I think the likely cost would have been hundreds of billions considering Australia does not have a nuclear energy generation industry. It currently has a very small nuclear workforce as it only has a small nuclear medical reactor on the outskirts of Sydney. | |
| ▲ | ZeroGravitas an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | It's not stupid if they are paid off by the people selling the coal and gas. It's just a treasonous level of corruption. Voters opting to be extorted like this would have been stupid. |
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| ▲ | rswail an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| They are, and they are being rapidly rolled out and the "post sunset" spikes are rapidly being flattened by both grid storage and "behind the meter" home batteries. |
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| ▲ | josephcooney 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| One of my co-workers (I'm Australian) has 500 kilowatt-hours of storage at home...which is wild. Much more common is the 10-20 kilowatt-hours of domestic storage for a house. |
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| ▲ | BLKNSLVR 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | More details please, do they have a website that explains their setup? Are they a hoarder of old car batteries and the like? | |
| ▲ | jondwillis 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | What is their fire suppression setup like??? Granted I guess they could be doing pumped hydro storage lol | | |
| ▲ | defrost 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | If they're in a rural / industrial area setting it could quite literally be a fire break around the battery area (bare dirt and no overhanging trees). Fire control in Australia is first and foremost about limiting spread - the bush in Australia goes off if it catches hard. "Mini" pumped hydro is a thing here (in places): https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-01/australian-first-mini... |
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| ▲ | fnordian_slip 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Does he have a saltwater aquarium, or any other hobby that can make use of it? If not, I can highly recommend that he get into it, if he's into that kind of overkill :) | |
| ▲ | protocolture an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | My dad buys lead acids written off from storm damage to solar systems (The whole system gets replaced under insurance even if the batteries are just a bit worn) and then sells them to preppers in the middle of nowhere. For a while he had above 300KW/h of storage, basically completely off grid with few shutdowns. It was kind of nuts. His house did burn down, but it was arson. | |
| ▲ | dzhiurgis 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | That's ~8 used EV batteries. Each cost less than 10k, maybe 6-8k AUD. If you know your way around high voltage DC, got a tractor and appropriate emulator - not exactly difficult or super expensive to pull off. Granted it's pretty uncommon setup as grid batteries themselves are pretty cheap too and used EV battery is simply too large for home user, too much hassle, liability, etc to save like $2-3k. |
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| ▲ | numpad0 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Maybe they just don't work? Otherwise someone's leaving tons of money on the table. Which implies nobody is. |
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| ▲ | pjc50 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Affordability is always relative. Australia can't afford that much battery storage, it has to spend $368bn on nuclear submarines. /s (did you mean 20kwh per user, or 20GW overall?) |
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| ▲ | 3stacks 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| They've already burned at least $15bn on that disastrous Snowy Hydro "battery" project... Could've just rolled out consumer batteries on a large scale instead. |
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| ▲ | simondotau 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | At current battery project prices, matching Snowy 2.0’s roughly 350 GWh of energy storage capacity with Tesla Megapacks would cost around AUD $218 billion [0] and require Tesla’s entire global Megapack production capacity redirected to a single client for five years. $15 billion is far more than Snowy 2.0 should have cost. But it remains substantially cheaper than any lithium-ion battery build for bulk storage. Storage on this scale is essential in a post-coal electricity grid, and batteries are not (yet) plausible substitutes for bulk storage. [0] This assumes linear scaling. In reality, placing an order like this would grossly distort supply and demand on many levels. Thus the cost would ultimately be superlinear. | | |
| ▲ | ZeroGravitas 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Snowy 2.0 has major limitations on what it can supply, the headline number is very misleading. And the comparison shouldn't be to batteries alone, but solar/wind and batteries. The former can be used directly and fill the batteries repeatedly on a timeline that is predictable. It provides no extra value for the electricity to be stored long term if for the same money you can generate and store it short term. Article on the various restrictions on Snowy 2.0: https://theconversation.com/snowy-2-0-cost-blowouts-might-be... | |
| ▲ | fragmede 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Yeah the battery storage story has to acknowledge the fact that global production capacity simply isn't actually high enough to deliver that many batteries so we need alternative solutions to the problem as well. |
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| ▲ | asdefghyk 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | From Australlian ABC news... The cost of the Snowy 2.0 pumped-hydro project is estimated to range from \(\$12\) billion to as high as \(\$42\) billion depending on the scope of costs included (such as direct construction, interest, and broader transmission). Originally announced in 2017 with a $2 billion price tag, the project has faced massive scale and logistical blowouts. The cost of the Snowy 2.0 pumped-hydro project is estimated to range from $12 billion to as high as $42 billion depending on the scope of costs included (such as direct construction, interest, and broader transmission). That said , hydro systems have a LONG LIFESPAN - 100 YEARS ? Batteries need to be replaced every X years. So the ecomiomics of the comparisoan would need to be calculated ... | | | |
| ▲ | stephen_g 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | That was exactly the point of the project though - it was designed by the conservative side of politics in our country to try and crowd out investment in batteries and other renewables while taking enough time to build to keep coal plants operating longer in the meantime. It didn't work at all for that though - we had a lot of private investment in large-scale batteries anyway, because the cost came down quickly just as most people (apart from the conservatives) expected. Then the other side of Government got in and put a subsidy scheme to get hundreds of thousands of home batteries installed, which has been multiple times better bang-for-buck than the Snowy 2.0 scheme, as well as taking far shorter a time. At the same time coal plants are shutting down as expected because they are increasingly unreliable given their old ages. Snowy 2.0 be an expensive stranded asset basically, it will work and be somewhat useful but extremely uneconomical so basically relying on the cost being written off - if it had to recoup any investment then it couldn't run because it'd never be able to sell the power for high enough. | |
| ▲ | Scoundreller 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | You can do similar math with building above ground oil storage tank capacity aaaaaand giving everyone free gas cans. And you can get out every drop. And it’s always ready to go. Do need to cycle your inventory. Fire departments probably wouldn’t be happy about it. |
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