I felt the same way in 2024-2025. Then Sonnet 4 was released, and things started feeling different. Opus 4.5 was another step change for me. Everything feels like it's accelerating, and timelines are getting crunched. I guess in some ways I envy OP, who would "bet everything" against ASI - the truth is I don't know, and I don't think anyone knows, where this ends.

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lukeschlather 2 hours ago | parent [-]

He didn't say he bets everything against ASI, he said he bets everything against ASI being a flash of light in the sky which destroys our chance of getting access to the wealth it creates.

	▲	kenforthewin an hour ago \| parent [-]
		That's a much less generous interpretation of his writing. "Yes we will birth superintelligence, but everything will just sort of work out for us humans". This seems like a silly take to me.