The closer I start working with and on AI stuff, the more I start seeing the disconnect between doomsday predictions of what AI will replace vs. what it is actually capable of. Yes, it can do stuff, and yes, it's getting better. But the closer you look the more clear it becomes that the enthusiast vision of completely independent AI systems is unrealistic as of today. Yes, all the tech companies are pushing for exactly this, but reliability and accuracy is all over the place. Plus, many of the technologies that everyone is talking about in the wider public (e.g. image recognition) have been quite well-developed and widely applied for years, before the current LLM boom, but they now get more attention as part of the overall AI hype.

Many indistries are changing, but in most cases the new tools will be more akin to cars that still need drivers, rather than robots who take over the whole job. Yes, jobs might be lost, or shifted to others, but it's not like suddenly 90% of people will have nothing to do. There were similar shifts in the past with new technologies, and we made it past them.

I think a main worry is that, this AI wave is quite different from past technological revolutions in that, this wave is happening so fast, the speed that humans learn new skills and master new jobs would lag more and more behind the speed that machines replace humans in those jobs. Without societal or legal constraints, capital chasing the max efficiency and profit would just replace humans with machines whenever machine cost comes down below humans.

AI capability is not a snapshot, but treated like a traditional software capability snapshot.

The capabilities sometimes have completely evolved by a take spreads far enough that it's no longer true, or suddenly it is true and possible.

What’s your p(doom)?