| ▲ | chr15m 3 hours ago | |||||||
The most important part of this for a living human being is touched on at the end. You only die once. Life expectancy is an ensemble mean over a population, and "you are not a population". You need to try to avoid risks that are going to kill you personally, not risks that affect aggregate life expectancy (there's overlap of course). Tinkering with HR-translated-to-life-years I think actually blurs that focus for individuals. The worst case is a risk that has a low ensemble HR and low life years impact, but will kill you personally very soon if you take the wrong action. Eating peanuts has an HR of 1, unless you are prone to fatal anaphylaxis from peanuts. HRs are useful for (and biased towards) doctors protecting as many humans as possible, but as an individual you should try to discover your peanut allergies as early as possible and protect yourself against them. | ||||||||
| ▲ | srean 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | |||||||
Relatedly, a common confusion is the use of probability in ergodic and non ergodic processes. The best example I have come across is that of a million people playing Russian Roulette with a six chamber revolver, in repeat mode. At any instant, only about 1/6th will get shot. However, your own probability will rapidly converge to 1 of being shot. | ||||||||
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| ▲ | refurb 39 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | |||||||
This is an important point that many people miss. Describing a benefit (or cost) over a population doesn’t directly translate to decision making at the individual level. We can say that you should alway take a bet that has an 80% probability of a 10x payout, because the outcome is positive, it wouldn’t be smart to bet your entire network as many outcomes are negative. | ||||||||