I believe the data strongly suggests structural demographics is driving up wages, with the labor component being somewhat inflationary (depending on vertical/industry). The labor market is resilient because (as of this comment) ~4M Boomers retire a year, ~11k/day, ~2M people 55+ die every year, about half of which are in the labor force; that means ~13k-14k workers leave the labor force every day in the US, ~400k/month.

America's missing middle: The shrinking 45-64 population - https://www.axios.com/2026/07/07/gen-x-population-shrinking-... - July 7th, 2026

Semiquincentennial snapshot: the US at 250 years - https://usafacts.org/articles/semiquincentennial-snapshot-th... - July 1st, 2026

Is the U.S. Labor Force Nearing Its Peak? - https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/economic-bulletin/is-... - June 29th, 2026

The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival - https://www.suerf.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/f_fa99ccdbe... - October 2020

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47680794 (citations)

https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...