I have a hard time imagining how spx stock will drop to a reasonable price. You have to be a true believer at its current valuation, so who is going to sell? Maybe if enough insiders or stock options start selling it will drop.

I expect via court order or government intervention.

How many of the HODLers will be SpaceX believers, vs. Musk believers? Musk's already only narrowly avoided being banned from running publicly traded companies from the $420 tweet years back.

Well, as I understand it, SpaceX intends to continue to raise money from the market. Eventually the true believers will stop having money to give them.

The market overall drops and large investors start shedding their pricier/riskier stocks to offset losses.

Slowly at first, then quickly.