BC stopped emission testing 10ish years ago because new cars almost never fail so there wasn't much value continuing the program.

For mid 2000s, the car is self monitoring so an emissions check is just a visual once over to ensure no physical tampering and a computer readout of emission readiness monitors + firmware checksum for digital tampering.

I’m imagine that’s coming soon. Most new large cars are getting turbos now to meet federal and state standards, the turbos wear faster and I’m sure there will be a desire to validate them.

There are some German cities (Munich) where you can’t enter the city center with a diesel car that doesn’t meet the EURO 4 standards. EURO 4 is a low bar but there’s really nothing stopping them from eventually implementing it more widely and upping the requirement to EURO 5, 6, etc.

I live in California, only drive mid 2000s cars, and haven't noticed any of the restrictions getting tighter.

Last year, or the year before, Texas dropped emissions testing, except in its most populous counties.

Yup, a bigger issue for old cars trying to pass emissions is that with prices of precious metals, a worn out catalytic converter (diagnostic code P0420 ) means that most of them are mechanically totaled in California, New York, Colorado since they require either OEM or CARB approved replacements.

Not being mandatory and not having an effect are different claims.

If you keep a population poor enough, almost anything can be functionally mandatory.

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