I don't think the parallels are quite as clear for a few reasons:

1. Lock in - with an LLM, there is practically no lock in because of the inputs & outputs being text. You can move easily

2. Motivation - I think you underestimate just how high some of these bills are for companies. Finance departments are already getting mandates to reign in spending even at the high level of subsidization.

3. Political Meddling - we're now at the point where the US strategy seems to be to artificially limit access to powerful models. If China continues its trajectory they will have models as good as Fable in 6 months to a year, and they won't lock it off. So cheaper, better models that are available is a massive incentive to switch. China is much less motivated to ratchet prices up if it's winning them marketshare. I do think David Sacks + AI strategy for US Gov are being very short sighted and it's going to blow up in their faces.