> I met an AI superforecaster startup founder who told me his AI had turned $35 into $2 million on Kalshi over seven months

Ok… assuming you can’t use that $2mil for some reason, simply take out a $10k line of credit and you’ll have $571 million in 7 months.

If you have the 2mil, congrats you’re 7 months away from $114B - you’re now one of the top 20 richest people in the world.

If this was truely the money printing machine they are saying it is, they would not be talking about it.

Any given trade also has a capacity. A mispricing opportunity can only absorb so much investment before it's no longer mispriced.

A particular trade that can 2x $20k won't be able to do the same for $20 billion.

It's why RenTech capped their Medallion Fund and closed it to outside investment.

If there's only a billion dollars sloshing around on Kalshi, you can't expect to put $1 trillion into bets and take $2 trillion out.

from the article:

  I asked the guy who turned $35 into $2 million in seven months on Kalshi whether, in another seven months, he would be able to 100,000x his money a second time to $200 billion. Unsurprisingly, he said no - there’s only so much easy money on Kalshi, and his AI had already taken it all (also, other people with similar AIs are starting to fight him for it!)

1. The liquidity is not infinite to compound that easily.

2. The alpha dries up with more players, even in the year or whatever since that founder started.

You're attacking a strawman. No one is claiming that you can pull off that multiplier at arbitrary amounts arbitrary amounts of times. And 7 months is plenty of calendar time for those arbitrages to disappear, given the attention on the area and the rapid rate of development. (Warren Buffett can't pull off his early trades now either, doesn't mean he was stupid or grifting in taking early investment.)