> Which has better predicted the trajectory of capabilities over the past five years?

By that standard, parrots, and it's not even close. The framing of intelligence led to an enormous number of predictions that simply haven't been realised: an end to all white collar work, UBI, a total revolution in society, a literal robot god.

People are so desperate to view 'stochastic parrots' as dismissive that they misread the original argument while quickly ignoring all the failed predictions about how AI was going to overturn, save, and destroy everything.