There's a lot of worry about the future, and has been since world-ending threats became apparent

However while apocalypse scenarios (Nuclear war, asteroid impact, AI powered biological warfare) are low likelihood, extreme impact, climate change is extreme likelihood and high impact, not just the immediate effect on places like Europe, Canada etc, but also from the conflicts that climate change will drive, which in turn may escalate to those extreme impact nuclear wars.

On a 5x5 matrix, grand extinction events would be a 5 for effect but a 1 for likelihood, putting them in a "medium-high" category

Climate change is a 3-4 on effect but a 4-5 o likelihood, putting them in a "very-high" risk category

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graemep 8 hours ago | parent [-]

Space weather that would bring down our systems is not such low likelihood.

I am not convinced nuclear war or biological warfare are as unlikely as you think. We have historically had narrow escapes from nuclear war.

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pyrale 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Let's just say that, if we're talking likelihood, climate change is the "we've already smashed the button and are now debating whether we should get in the vault" category.

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hyperbovine 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Climate change also greatly increases the chance of a huge global conflict breaking out.

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graemep 8 hours ago | parent [-]

It might raise the chance of some conflicts (e.g. over Antarctica or Russia's border) and some land grabs, but I cannot see it leading to a world war.

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water-data-dude 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

India and Pakistan are both reliant on the Indus River for their agriculture. The Indus has its source in glaciers in the Himalayas. As those glaciers disappear, the Indus will deliver less water, and deliver it much less reliably (melting ice and snow provides a nice steady flow, runoff less so).

So: you have two nuclear powers who are both relying on the same diminishing resource to feed their people. Do you not see how that could cause....tension?

	▲	graemep an hour ago \| parent [-]
		Yes, but that would be a regional, not global conflict. There are already tensions over it and plenty of other tensions between India and Pakistan. the comment I replied to claimed it would cause a "huge global conflict" - i.e. world war. Serious as a war between India and Pakistan would be I would not characterise it in the same way as, say, an all out war between the US and China.

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swiftcoder 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

That largely depends on to what degree food production collapses in newly-tropical regions. A whole bunch of staple agricultural production isn't going to survive widespread drought and heatwaves, and everyone dependent on those food sources is going to end up very hungry, and taking a hard look at cooler neighbouring regions...