> In early 2025 I predicted that AI will create many, many more programmers, and that new programming jobs would look different.

Turns out that as admitted, the opposite was true and was predictable. Such that, in late 2024 [0], I predicted that there would be more layoffs in 2025.

> In March I checked in and found startups substituting compute for labor at record rates, with the wave of new jobs nowhere in sight.

Of course they would. Why hire a junior software engineer when you can replace them with an offshore remote mid engineer at 1/10th of the cost and give them Claude?

Surely that makes all of this even cheaper? False. Just ask Apple. [1] Or Boeing [2] [3] with their expensive offshoring and their trade secrets either leaked or the quality degraded.

And those drunk on token usage are now limiting it because it is expensive. Ask Meta, Tesla, Amazon and Microsoft why they are not "tokenmaxxing".

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42490692

[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-investigating-tata...

[2] https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2025/06/12/boeing-...

[3] https://www.computerworld.com/article/2513787/boeing-and-the...