| ▲ | al_borland 8 hours ago | |
Agreed, it seems like really short-term thinking. People still learn math, despite the calculator existing. Accounts still learn accounting, despite Excel and accounting software existing. If/when it does change in 12-24 months, I think companies need to take a serious look at the people in these “leadership” positions. If the quality of their thinking on big things like this is that bad, and so easily swayed by marketing and hype, then they don’t seem qualified for the positions they’re in. | ||
| ▲ | diarrhea 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | |
> People still learn math, despite the calculator existing. Accounts still learn accounting, despite Excel and accounting software existing. They do, but you need far fewer or none of the original workers whose full-time job this sort of stuff was. Raw math does not matter, but what you do with it. Similarly, you could earn a (modest) living knowing nothing but raw HTML, JavaScript and a bit of browser tech not too long ago. That is no longer possible. Programming and software engineering will be devalued. These occupations won't disappear overnight, but you will see compensation and growth stagnate until equilibrium is reached again. Currently, supply outstrips demand, and I do think it is structural, not just hype. I'm certainly not creative enough, but I currently do not see demand picking up sufficiently; Gen Z is bearish on social media, VR was a bust, blockchain was a bust, software has already penetrated almost all walks of live and lines of work. There is no next big thing (Internet, ...) on the horizon, to unlock the next order of magnitude of demand. There is certainly more work to do still, but it very suddenly does not require the same headcount, but something like 5%-30% less. Lots of the remaining work will be around integrating LLMs into existing software, which does not sound exciting either. | ||
| ▲ | 0xpgm 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | |
One annoying thing is how long it takes for things to sway back into equilibrium. It's getting quite exhausting having to endure all these major events of the 21st century and their consequences - 9/11 and the Iraq war, the 2008 financial crisis, covid-19, and now AI. But I guess it's better than all out war and conquest as was with most of human history. | ||