I think we're going to look back on this as one of the things that really exacerbates this bubble. It's one thing for these companies to have high expectations of their future compute needs and therefore overbuild. But what the SpaceX/Anthropic deal showed was even if you fall short, you can profit by selling off your overcapacity. This means there is essentially no incentive to limit how much capacity you're building, anything you don't use you'll still profit from.

The problem is that only works if aggregate demand is higher than supply. At some point, all these new data centres are going to come on line, and the frothy "throw AI at everything with no regard to costs" is going to drawn down across the industry. And this supply will be much larger - because everyone thought the down side was limited.

At that point you're going to have all of these companies trying to dump their excess capacity on the market and it suddenly won't be true that you can just sell capacity to your competitors.

Obviously this won't bankrupt Meta - it'll just eat into their profits from their ads business. But it likely will drive a bunch of neo-clouds out of business very quickly, and the technology providers like Nvidia etc will suddenly come back to reasonable P/Es.

> But what the SpaceX/Anthropic deal showed was even if you fall short, you can profit by selling off your overcapacity.

Do you have proof that the deal is profitable (and for how long?) for SpaceX ?