> That seems really large, but it's ~2-3x Walmart's yearly revenue, and OpenAI and Anthropic both have estimated valuations that compare to Walmart's market cap. ...

It's also before cutthroat pricing really kicks in.

Right, that's more of an estimate on the value proposition of the overall AI industry, rather than valuations of the industry or specific players. While I don't think OpenAI and Anthropic will capture all of the potential upside, I do suspect they will do much better than other players despite the competition (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48740472)

> And this is before we consider that they need to do it for cheaper or why would anyone bother.

Typically yes, but there are reasons companies may be willing to pay the same amount or even more, such as "AI doesn't need sleep, holidays, insurance, or benefits" and "AI is easier to procure and replace than humans."

> The studies I've seen recently (at least in the software space) put it at something like a 10% increase in coding speed...

Curious to see which studies you're looking at, the studies I'm thinking of (some here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45379452) are from 2024 - 2025, so already old and before agents really took off.

However, your point about meetings and agreements and documenting is much more germane. My theory is that the largest productivity gains -- and subsequent labor displacement -- will come from reducing coordination overhead: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48040999