I'm insured, but I'm considering dropping insurance for the most likely disaster: earthquakes.

I'm in CA, and even though I'm not on top of an active fault, I'm close enough to be impacted. When the big one gets here, if it's big enough to affect me, then everyone else will be affected. I don't have any reason to expect them to stay solvent if a third of the CA population files for benefits.

I've thought about taking the money I pay for earthquake insurance premiums, and instead putting it on polymarket, betting that an earthquake will happen. If it doesn't, then I'm no worse off than I was paying for insurance. If it does, then polymarket just distributes my "winnings".

Convince me to keep my insurance.

The most convincing argument I could make is that the government could step in and keep the insurance agencies solvent. Sort of a too-big-to-fail situation.

I won't try because I did something similar. If it happens I can guarantee that the insurance companies won't be solvent.

Instead we are focused on investing our money as a form of self-insurance.

It's kind of like life insurance; term makes sense but whole life doesn't (vs investing the premiums).

As far as polymarket: I can't say there. I've never used it (though I know what it is).

The issue isn't the big one. The issue is a minor tremor that happens to crack a vital support beam, or cracks a pipe, and causes $25k of damage.