My two cents is that the way to square this circle is that the valuations should be lower and they should be spending a lot less on constant retraining.

Unfortunately (from my perspective) it seems like the US companies are increasingly stuck in their current model. I think it's a competitive disadvantage.

But obviously most of the real insiders seem to disagree with me, so I'm probably wrong :)

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wyre 8 hours ago | parent [-]

The insiders disagree because they are benefiting greatly from the insane valuations, right?

Chinese models are quickly commodifying frontier inference, the US Gov is preventing domestic SOTA models access to the public and without those models why would consumers still spend $200/month to use the best models?

It’s such a mess and isn’t inspiring confidence as a non-investor.

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sanderjd 8 hours ago | parent [-]

Are they benefiting from the insane valuations though? If the valuations deflate before the insiders are able to exit, I think that would be worse for them than a lower but sustainable valuation.

It all comes down to whose prediction of the future is closer to correct. I think the most likely future is commodification of inference and "agent-assisted" rather than "agent-driven" workflows dominating the future of work. But insiders - who both know way more than me, and also have more skin in the game, both for better and worse - seem to really think I'm wrong about that.

So I dunno! Could go either way!

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drob518 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It’s all about timing. This is tech bubble 2.0, Dotcom Boogaloo. If you’re able to flip it quickly, you’ll have generational wealth. If not, you could be holding a lot of worthless paper.

	▲	sanderjd an hour ago \| parent [-]
		Yes. But is your impression that this is the strategy of people like Amodei? My impression is that it isn't, that they are actually true believers, and not just trying to hit the timing right and flip it.

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wyre 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Even if the future is agent-driven workflow, that doesn't stop the commodification of inference. a good agent-driven workflow, in my experience, is a byproduct of the harness and scaffolding around the agent.

What insiders are you talking about? They're going to be hot towards the possibilities so they can exit to a massive windfall. I dont know why they would want to be publicly critical of these technologies that could make millions on IPO.

	▲	sanderjd 6 hours ago \| parent [-]
		I'm talking about people who work at the frontier labs who talk to the press, and what seems to be the revealed beliefs of those same people from the strategies we see their companies pursuing. My point is that actually it would be worse for these people if the valuations are only high during this period - which will last awhile longer from now! - where their equity is not liquid, but crashes as the market figures out this commoditization thing. But if we're wrong about how that's going to go, then this isn't a concern because there won't be any devaluation. And to me that seems to be what they honestly think is going to happen. And they know more than me (and I think they're a lot smarter than me), so this does temper my confidence in my own predictions.