According to this graph and assuming both US emissions fall and Chinese grow exponentially at the rate they were over the decade 2014-2024, the figures will cross around 2037.

Personally I doubt that, as US emissions have been going up due to data centers:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-leads-global-co2-...

And while China, like you said, doesn't seem to have a focused goal, it so happens that renewables are the path of least resistance for just having more energy as fast and cheap as possible.