For the optimistic case, read this piece by RethinkX:

https://www.rethinkx.com/blog/rethinkx/the-disruption-of-lab...

(Fwiw, >20 years ago RethinkX correctly projected the exponential cost declines of solar and batteries, when everybody else was drawing straight lines.)

> Humanoid robots will enter the market at a cost-capability of under $10/hour for their labor, on a trajectory to under $1/hour before 2035 and under $0.10/hour before 2045.

I dont see it, unless this is an expectation that a robot will work for 50 years without maintenance at capex.

Why doesnt a comparable tool, like an excavator, work with this math? Why arent they 100 times cheaper to run than 20 years ago? Excavators can cost 50 - 100k pa in maintenance and fuel costs.

Why does creating a multifunction tool, with even finer tolerances, working in human safe workspaces cost less?