| ▲ | mrtksn 2 hours ago |
| What happens if Samsung and SK Hynix simply stop selling to US at all? Micron is in US but are the rest still in the US jurisdiction? They are selling the hottest commodity of the day. It’s made outside of the US using non-American tooling. |
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| ▲ | ksec 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| >It’s made outside of the US using non-American tooling. Depends if US can demand ASML which uses plenty of US tech inside. In reality even the DRAM and NAND supply chain has plenty of US technologies. And you say Micron are US but they have lots of Fabs in Japan as well since they acquired Elpida. |
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| ▲ | mrtksn 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Everyone is using something from someone, you can even argue that US owes India and Europe huge compensation because pretty much everything US did in the last half century was made using technology or people funded by those people. Johny Ive is British, Almost all the AI stuff is created by Europeans, Israelis, and Canadians - thus funded by their respective taxpayers. The thing about the US losing its grip on the world and the collapse of the global world order means that the words on the paper don't mean much. Embargoes on Russia didn't mean much so Europeans are physically taking over their ships and Ukrainians are physically sinking the rest of their ships. In Iran nothing other than physically sinking ships and blowing up places meant anything. Europeans can ship EUV machines because they are physically building them for people who will use these to physically build the most valuable products currently there is. US wasn't able to enforce its will to Iran, what if Koreans, Europeans and the Chinese decide that its not into their interest to act according to US courts? | | |
| ▲ | kurthr an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | The collapse of global trade would greatly reduce economic efficiency, output, and investment. It has been coming for while, though greatly accelerated by the orange pdf file. It takes a lot longer to build systems of trust and belief in enforcements of global order than to disrupt them. I suppose we'll move closer to the fear side of the financial/political axis from the greed side. | |
| ▲ | ksec an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | If history is any guidelines that would be how World War III starts. There is nothing that stops US from building their own Memory Fabs, or asking / funding Micron building more US Fabs. It will cost a more, but the complexity is certainly no where near replicating TSMC. | | |
| ▲ | mrtksn an hour ago | parent [-] | | US is in a very advantageous position regarding geography and resources but its problem is that its geared towards having access to the whole worlds markets. Apple, Google etc. are all possible because they server billions of people, not just 350M. IMHO US will have serious internal trouble for years, eventually stabilizing and being a nice place again. |
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| ▲ | dominotw 41 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > Steve Jobs is Syrian lol he is not. at no point was he a syrian. his mom was from ohio or something. | |
| ▲ | reylas an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | You are going to have to cite more for those claims. Steve Jobs was born in San Francisco. He is as Syrian as Trump is. This is as biased an Anti-US take as any. Will not grace the rest of the claims with a response. |
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| ▲ | bilekas 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > What happens if Samsung and SK Hynix simply stop selling to US at all? Micron is in US but are the rest still in the US jurisdiction? They would lose access to their largest market, I'm sure shareholders would havesomething to say about that ? |
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| ▲ | mrtksn an hour ago | parent [-] | | The market is the AI boom and the US is the host, they can sell the exact same stuff to someone else. What are the capitalists who fund the AI build up do? Invest in SaaS when they can't buy chips? I bet if something like that happens the chip manufacturers wouldn't end up with product they have no one to sell to. |
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| ▲ | jollyllama 23 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Arbitrage? |
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| ▲ | dist-epoch 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| US is the vast majority of their market - Apple, hyper-scalers, AI labs |
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| ▲ | mrtksn an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | Why can't they just buy the exact same product and install it in Kazakhstan or somewhere else? | | |
| ▲ | myrmidon an hour ago | parent [-] | | The RAM buyers have no interest in entertaining something like that because their revenue comes mainly from the US, too. Corporations avoid picking fights with large nations where lots of revenue comes from for very obvious reasons. | | |
| ▲ | mrtksn an hour ago | parent [-] | | So in other words, if Koreans and Europeans decide not to sell their stuff to America quits the AI race and the capitalist do something else instead? I don't think so, in the hypothetical world where Korea and Europe don't sell to US, the American money that is invested in AI will go wherever they can actually build it, the people who are using these machines to build those models are mostly immigrants anyway. | | |
| ▲ | myrmidon 33 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | If Koreans/Europeans decide not to sell their stuff, some of the money would go into circumventing the ban: 1) This is not good for Korean/Europen sellers, because it negatively affects sales volume, and is unlikely to be compensated by margins, because a good chunk of those will go towards circumvention instead of the original seller. 2) Some more money will go towards replacing those sellers completely. This is extra not good from the sellers perspective. | |
| ▲ | SpicyLemonZest 40 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | I don't understand what this hypothetical world is supposed to be. Samsung and SK Hynix are run by Korean capitalists who want to sell their stuff to America; the reasons you're describing are precisely why they would not exit the American market just to dodge an inconvenient antitrust investigation. |
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| ▲ | russli1993 an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | And hyper-scalers, Apple, AI labs all will die if memory makers can't sell to them? |
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| ▲ | zuzululu an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| regime change in South Korea. President Lee Jae Myung isn't exactly popular among Washington circles |
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| ▲ | russli1993 an hour ago | parent | prev [-] |
| memory is a commodity is laughable. Then software engineering is even more a commodity, the amount of engineering going into making memory chips the vast majority of people don't understand. There are a lot of software engineers getting this field after leetcoding and copy from hellointerview. Claude can write you an app in 30 minutes. Try build a lpddr5 dram chip in 30 minutes. Manufacturing know how itself is a specialty and barrier to entry. |
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| ▲ | AngryData 13 minutes ago | parent [-] | | I mean your view isn't flawless but overall I agree. Too many people think building things amount to spending money and completely overlook the thousands of people required who are not just unskilled labor hired off the street. |
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